which of Mill’s Methods is being used and describe the argument in the passage using the schematic form associated with that method

Assignment 2

The answers required for this assignment require you to respond in a longer fashion (approx. 2–3 paragraphs). Nonetheless, try to be concise. Part marks can be awarded. It should take you 6 hours to complete this assignment. This assignment consists of 5 questions. Total possible high score = 100 marks.

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• In the following passages identify which of Mill’s Methods is being used and describe the argument in the passage using the schematic form associated with that method. For each passage, indicate whether the intended causality is characterized as a sufficient condition, a necessary condition, both a sufficient and a necessary condition, or neither. (10 marks each. Total = 20 marks)
  • In a famous experiment conducted 27 years ago by the Stanford University psychologist Philip Zimbardo, a car was parked on a street in Palo Alto, where it sat untouched for a week. At the same time, Zimbardo had an identical parked in a roughly comparable neighbourhood in the Bronx, only in this case the license plates were removed and the hood was propped open. Within a day, it was stripped. Then, in a final twist, Zimbardo smashed one of the Palo Alto car’s windows with a sledgehammer. Within a few hours, that car, too, was destroyed. Zimbardo’s point was that disorder invites even more disorder – that a small deviation from the norm can set into motion a cascade of vandalism and criminality. (The New Yorker, June 3, 1996)
  • Twins… have a [significantly] lower suicide rate, reports the British Medical Journal. Danish researchers… identified 21,653 same-sex twins born between 1870 and 1930 and established the date and cause of their deaths from 1943 to 1993. They compared the number of suicides with the general population. The lower rate for twins supports the view that strong family ties reduce the risk for suicidal behaviour…
  • The strongest risk factor for suicide is mental illness, and other studies have found mental illness to be slightly more common among twins than singletons. “This should lead to a higher proportion of twins committing suicide compared with the general population, but our findings show exactly the opposite, further underscoring the importance of strong family ties,” they conclude. (Toronto Star, D3, August 22, 2003)
• The following two passages contain examples of hypothetical reasoning. For each passage identify the hypothesis being proposed. Also state some observable predictions that would follow from the hypothesis. Finally, provide an alternate hypothesis that you believe provides a better explanation for what has been observed. Explain why your hypothesis is better. (10 marks each. Total = 20 marks)
  • Medical scientists have noticed recently that the incidence of severe heart attacks in young and middle-aged men is far greater in a particular small area of Finland than in any other region in the world. Most of these men work as lumberjacks. Their diets consist of large amounts of meat, eggs, cream, and rich pastries –foods that are high in cholesterol. Medical scientists believe that diet is the cause of the high incidence of heart attacks.
  • A plastic surgeon who specializes in facelifts commented that his youngest patients are frequently actresses. He believes that actresses seek facelifts at an earlier age than other women because actresses’ faces “fall” as a result of extensive massaging when they put on and take off their makeup.
• Consider a Music Appreciation Club with 100 members (40 women and 60 men). Each member of the club likes only one type of music, and men and women are equally likely to like any of the types of music. Twenty members of the club like The Beatles’ music (they are “the cute ones”);
10 like Pink Floyd’s music (they are “the stoned ones”); 
16 like Beck’s music (they are “the cool ones”); 
24 like the Spice Girl’s music (they are “the sad ones”); 
and 30 like U2’s music (they are “the righteous ones”).
Each question is worth 10 marks. (Total = 30 marks)
Suppose a member of the club is randomly selected:
  • What is the probability that the member selected is either “a cool one,” “a stoned one,” or “a cute one?” Explain your choice of formula used to derive your answer.
  • What is the probability that the member selected is a woman who is “a cute one?” Explain your choice of formula used to derive your answer.
  • Now, suppose two members of the club are randomly selected:
  • What is the probability that the first one selected is “a sad one” and the second one selected is “a righteous one?” Explain your choice of formula used to derive your answer.
• You are taking a true–false test that has ten questions, and you need a score of 60 percent to pass. You know the answers to only five of the questions. For the other five, you toss a coin and answer “true” if it comes up heads and “false” if it comes up tails. What is the probability that you will pass the exam? Explain your choice of formula used to derive your answer.
• (10 marks)
• Consider the following two arguments from analogy. For each argument, indicate the entities between which the similarity is being drawn. For each argument, assess whether the argument is strong or weak. Explain your assessment.
• (10 marks each. Total = 20 marks)
  • Almost everyone would throw a life preserver to a drowning person; indeed, someone who could easily do so but refused would be regarded by everyone as a sick or immoral person. The same thing applies to nations when a famine occurs in a Third World country. We should be prepared to throw them a life preserver in the form of emergency aid. Yet, we continually hear complaints from those who are opposed to such aid. Surely we are entitled to regard them as sick or immoral people.

Many people support gun control legislation because they think it will reduce the number of murders. They are making a serious mistake, however. Have they forgotten the failure of prohibition to reduce the amount of drunkenness?